XAU/USD
XAU/USD price chart
Not available from the connected data sources. No historical line is drawn without dated observations.
XAU/USD forecast by horizon
| Horizon | Median change | Baseline median | Historical error range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 reference observations ahead | 0% | 4,070.35687 | 3,997.32223 – 4,144.72592 Observed band coverage: 83.3% · Mean absolute error: 41.35788 · 126 completed forecasts |
| 5 reference observations ahead | 0% | 4,070.35687 | 3,899.86483 – 4,248.30238 Observed band coverage: 83.3% · Mean absolute error: 100.08755 · 126 completed forecasts |
| 22 reference observations ahead | 0% | 4,070.35687 | 3,705.63876 – 4,470.97143 Observed band coverage: 87.3% · Mean absolute error: 246.35671 · 126 completed forecasts |
- Latest matched reference date
- 2026-10-29
- Unit
- USD per troy ounce
- Model
- gold-reference-random-walk-v1
- Training observations
- 252
This random-walk benchmark holds the latest dated gold reference as its median. Ranges use the 80th percentile of absolute log-price moves in the preceding 252 matched observations. NBP PLN/gram gold is converted using same-date ECB USD/PLN ×31.1034768 to USD/troy ounce.
The 80% historical calibration target is not a guaranteed probability. The 126 overlapping rolling forecasts use only information available at each origin. Horizons count reference observations, not calendar days. These statistical estimates are not live spot prices, AI price targets or investment advice.
Rolling-origin backtest: 2026-04-01 – 2026-10-29
Indicator readings, not recommendations to buy or sell.
For information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are model estimates and may be wrong.
Analyst summary
Data and published coverage for XAU/USD