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EUR/USD

Euro / US Dollar · Forex
1.1172
+0.38% · past sessionReference data

EUR/USD price chart

Not available from the connected data sources. No historical line is drawn without dated observations.

EUR/USD forecast by horizon

HorizonMedian changeBaseline medianHistorical error range
1 reference fixings ahead0%1.11721.11289 – 1.12152
Observed band coverage: 86.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.00253 · 126 completed forecasts
5 reference fixings ahead0%1.11721.10667 – 1.12783
Observed band coverage: 82.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.00639 · 126 completed forecasts
22 reference fixings ahead0%1.11721.09241 – 1.14255
Observed band coverage: 67.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.01711 · 126 completed forecasts
Latest reference fixing
2026-10-30
Unit
USD / EUR
Model
fx-reference-random-walk-v1
Training observations
252

This random-walk benchmark keeps the latest reference fixing as its median forecast, so it claims no directional edge. Each range uses the 80th percentile of absolute log-price moves at that horizon in the preceding 252 fixings.

Ranges target 80% historical calibration, not a guaranteed probability. Backtests use only information available at each origin; their 126 completed forecasts overlap and are not independent trials. Reference fixings are not executable prices. AI writes the separate source-grounded news analysis; it does not invent these numbers.

Rolling-origin backtest: 2026-04-07 – 2026-10-30

Indicator readings, not recommendations to buy or sell.

For information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are model estimates and may be wrong.

Key statistics

Unit
USD per base currency
Batch retrieved (UTC)
2026-10-31T10:24:54.062Z
Status
Reference data; not a live execution quote
Observation time
Not supplied by this snapshot; retrieval time is not the price's observation time.
Class
Forex

Short-term outlook

This random-walk benchmark keeps the latest reference fixing as its median forecast, so it claims no directional edge. Each range uses the 80th percentile of absolute log-price moves at that horizon in the preceding 252 fixings.

Analyst summary

Data and published coverage for EUR/USD

Reviewed market context

EUR/USD closed at a reference level of 1.1188 on 26 October 2026, based on the ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates. That represents a small one-day change of -0.04%, leaving the pair close to the lower end of its recent range. The 20-day high is 1.1355 and the 20-day low is 1.1177, so the latest fixing is only marginally above that lower bound. The 50-day moving average is 1.1432, with its slope over the past week falling. The 14-day RSI is 37.4, which is consistent with the computed bearish bias. The hub-level benchmarks are support at 1.1155, pivot at 1.1188 and resistance at 1.1378. The seven-calendar-day window runs from 21 October to 27 October 2026 and contains four observed fixings. The lowest fixing in the period is 1.1188 and the highest is 1.1234, with the first fixing at 1.1234 and the latest at 1.1188. The thirty-calendar-day window runs from 28 September to 27 October 2026 and contains 21 observed fixings. Its lowest fixing is 1.1177 and its highest is 1.1378, with the first fixing at 1.1378 and the latest at 1.1188. These are dated reference observations, not executable quotes or forecasts. On 26 October 2026 the European Central Bank published the 40th round of its Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, or SAFE. In that release, the ECB reported that euro area firms indicated a further net tightening of bank loan interest rates and other loan conditions related to price and non-price factors. The survey covered the third quarter of 2026 and was conducted between 26 August and 2 October 2026. The ECB release is dated 09:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. The reference fixing is dated 26 October, but the pinned evidence does not supply its observation time, so an ordering within that day cannot be established from the date alone. The survey provides financing context; it does not establish the cause of the -0.04% daily change or a future EUR/USD path.

Source context does not establish the cause of a price move.

Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: lending conditions tightened · 2026-10-26T09:00:00.000Z

Recent range

Dated reference indicators; not a live execution quote.

Source date
2026-10-26

7 calendar days

2026-10-21 – 2026-10-27 · ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates · USD per EUR

Reference observations
4
Recent range
1.118806010225887 – 1.1234061674998597

30 calendar days

2026-09-28 – 2026-10-27 · ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates · USD per EUR

Reference observations
21
Recent range
1.1177055739976975 – 1.1377988144136355

Evidence cutoff (UTC):

What's on the calendar

No reviewed asset-specific Forex Factory event mapping is connected. View Forex Factory's calendar.

How this forecast is made

Source
ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates
Reference close
1.1188
Change from prior reference (%)
-0.04
50-close moving average
1.1432
RSI (14)
37.4
Computed trend
Falling
Computed bias
Bearish
Computed support
1.1155
Computed pivot
1.1188
Computed resistance
1.1378

Descriptive indicators from dated reference daily closes. Seven- and thirty-calendar-day UTC windows contain observed fixings only; missing days are not filled. Numerical reference-price benchmarks are computed separately on the quote page; this article does not generate forecast numbers.

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