EUR/USD
EUR/USD price chart
Not available from the connected data sources. No historical line is drawn without dated observations.
EUR/USD forecast by horizon
| Horizon | Median change | Baseline median | Historical error range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 reference fixings ahead | 0% | 1.1172 | 1.11289 – 1.12152 Observed band coverage: 86.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.00253 · 126 completed forecasts |
| 5 reference fixings ahead | 0% | 1.1172 | 1.10667 – 1.12783 Observed band coverage: 82.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.00639 · 126 completed forecasts |
| 22 reference fixings ahead | 0% | 1.1172 | 1.09241 – 1.14255 Observed band coverage: 67.5% · Mean absolute error: 0.01711 · 126 completed forecasts |
- Latest reference fixing
- 2026-10-30
- Source
- ECB via Frankfurter
- Unit
- USD / EUR
- Model
- fx-reference-random-walk-v1
- Training observations
- 252
This random-walk benchmark keeps the latest reference fixing as its median forecast, so it claims no directional edge. Each range uses the 80th percentile of absolute log-price moves at that horizon in the preceding 252 fixings.
Ranges target 80% historical calibration, not a guaranteed probability. Backtests use only information available at each origin; their 126 completed forecasts overlap and are not independent trials. Reference fixings are not executable prices. AI writes the separate source-grounded news analysis; it does not invent these numbers.
Rolling-origin backtest: 2026-04-07 – 2026-10-30
Indicator readings, not recommendations to buy or sell.
For information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are model estimates and may be wrong.
Analyst summary
Data and published coverage for EUR/USD